Full Throttle

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup heads to Phoenix International Raceway this week, for Sunday’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Presented By Pennzoil – the ninth event in the Chase. That will be the capper of a national series tripleheader weekend at the 1-mile track.

The Chase, Week 9
• Jimmie Johnson’s chances of a record fourth-straight championship absorbed a body blow at Texas – but by no means was it a knockout. An early-race crash led to a 38th-place finish for Johnson and a seemingly safe lead in the points is down to 73 over second-place Mark Martin, with two races remaining on the schedule. The largest deficit ever overcome with two races remaining is 85 points. In 1992, Alan Kulwicki leapfrogged two drivers – Bill Elliott and Davey Allison – with two races to go to win the championship.

• As the season comes to a close, the championship picture starts to come into focus. To clinch at Homestead, two races away, Johnson needs to average a fourth-place finish over the final two races, or fifth and a lap led in each of the final two races, or sixth and the most laps led in each of the final two races. If he does that, he’ll clinch no matter what any other driver does. He can mathematically clinch at Phoenix, though the task is a tough one. To clinch Sunday, Johnson needs to leave Phoenix with a 195-point lead over second place. Currently up 73 points, he’ll need to gain 122 points in Sunday’s race.

• His suddenly precarious lead aside, Johnson has to like the fact that he’ll be in Phoenix this week. He has won three of the last four PIR races. Johnson won the fall race at Phoenix in 2007, then swept last year’s two races. Johnson also has the top pre-race Driver Rating at Phoenix – by a wide margin. His 120.0 rating is 17.6 points ahead of second-best Kurt Busch’s 102.4.

• Mark Martin, second in the points this week, could be headed toward his fifth series championship runner-up finish. If that happens, his consolation will be a simply outstanding season – his first for Hendrick Motorsports. Martin has five victories this season, second only to Johnson’s six. The first of Martin’s 2009 victories came at Phoenix, in April. So, given the points-tightening developments at Texas, Martin is looming ominously in Johnson’s rear-view mirror.

• Four-time champion Jeff Gordon’s on-again, off-again “drive for five” is back on, thanks to Johnson’s crash at Texas and Gordon’s 13th-place finish. Gordon is third, 112 behind Johnson. Gordon is still looking for that 83rd career victory, which will tie him with Cale Yarborough for fifth on the all-time list.

Spoiler Roles: Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick
Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick could be the guys outside the Chase to watch this week. Busch nearly pulled off the ultimate sweep this past weekend at Texas, winning races in both the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and the NASCAR Nationwide Series before falling just short in the NASCAR Sprint Cup event, due to running out of gas.

Busch is obviously on a roll – he’s closing in on winning the NASCAR Nationwide championship – and he also won the NASCAR Sprint Cup fall race in Phoenix back in 2005.
Harvick swept Phoenix’s two races in 2006; in the latter he posted a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0.

Both of these drivers will have plenty of track time at PIR, as they’re scheduled to run in all three events.

Stats: Phoenix A House of Dominance
Phoenix is a place of dominance, so says the statistics. There have been two perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0 scored at Phoenix since the inception of the Loop Data stat in 2005. Only one other track has multiple perfect 150s – Pocono, with two.

Kurt Busch scored a perfect Driver Rating in April of 2005, the first 150.0 ever recorded. Kevin Harvick posted the second 150 at Phoenix, in November of 2006.

Johnson came close to a perfect 150 in his Phoenix win in November of last season, scoring a 149.9.