Give a Hardy Howdy to Don
Editors note: - A couple days ago I received a request from Don Long if I would permit him to post a piece here at Full Throttle. He has been a reader for some time and also a fan of NASCAR. His blogging time is normally spent casting stones at the liberal side of the political blogosphere (an easy, but time consuming job).
I was more than happy to post his thoughts on the Chase and it’s outcome. (Hey stupid, you know you just wanted to post that fancy pants image!) So I present with pleasure:
Don Long
Why Jeff Gordon’s Magic is Gone - A speculative look at the problems facing NASCAR’s most successful, active driver.
I can explain all of Jeff Gordon’s problems, and accurately predict his performance for the last 10 races of the NASCAR Nextel Cup season. I also know which team will win it all.
Gordon dominated NASCAR Nextel Cup from the early 1990s until crew chief Ray Evernham left to form his own race teams. Gordon was lucky to win a 4th championship after Evernham left (with Robbie Loomis as chief). This happened solely because NASCAR made only minor changes to the rules, which let Loomis produce fast race cars with Evernham’s notes. Sorry, Robbie, it wasn’t you.
Once NASCAR established substantial rules changes, especially aero, Loomis lost his way, and was fired. That he left of his own free will (from Hendrick’s organization?!), or a mutual decision, is utter nonsense.
Gordon has struggled since the moment Evernham left, and that is a fact. Evernham is like Chad Knause on the 48 team — brilliant, and he knows it, and therefore won’t put up with arrogant wheelmen. And that’s the nut of Gordon’s problem. Attitude.
Rewind slightly. The well known rift between Gordon and Evernham was because Gordon has a big head. It wasn’t generalized tension between them, as everyone likes to believe. And, Gordon has carried his I-know-better-than-you attitude, effectively acting as crew chief from
behind the wheel, into the Letarte era.
Now, although the cars have improved on 1.5 mile D’s this year, and Steve Letarte has made some inspiring strategic calls during races, the underlying problem remains the same: Gordon’s arrogance.
By contrast, have you noticed how Jimmie Johnson lets Chad Knause be the dominant guy in their duo? There are no better drivers than Johnson, but he’s not letting his own ego wreck Knause’s ability to win races, and look at the results this tactic has been yielding for several years now. Everyone said Johnson could learn much from Gordon, when reality suggests the
opposite is true.
The end of Cup’s regular season for 2006 saw Gordon surge, with a couple of wins and many top-ten finishes, which kept him in the hunt. Richmond, however, showed the true standing of this team. They’re a 10th place team that occasionally does better, occasionally worse.
The team is still frustrated, and for good reason. The magic is gone, and they’re either baffled as to the reason or unwilling to admit that Gordon, himself, is holding the team down. It’s an attitude problem, not skill, for Gordon’s driving is beyond reproach.
My prediction is Jeff Gordon will finish at the tail end, if not dead last, among the 10 drivers contending for the championship.
Jimmie Johnson, letting Knause do his job, will be the 2006 NASCAR Nextel Cup champion. He’ll go into the off-season a hero, leaving Gordon to scratch his head, avoiding the mirror, yet again.
The author, Don Long, has been a huge fan of Jeff Gordon since day one. He still is, and always will be.
Marc’s retort: No problem, but for one piddly little exception Don. I think your butt is sucking buttermilk of you believe J.J. will be wearing any crown this season. Jeffy in 10th? Very possible, but sorry, he and the other eight will be looking up at the dais as Matt Kenseth accepts the trophy in NYC.
But, thanks for stopping by Don, my place is your place. I will however pass along any flaming emails that hit my box from outraged Jeffy fans (if they don’t burn up my modem on the way thru). After I have a few belly laughs at their expense of course.
Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, NASCAR, NEXTEL Cup, Sports, The Shaved Ape, Auto Racing, Motorsports, Full Throttle
Welcome Don. Now, to business.
(To busineeesssss! Eat!)
I think you’re partially right, in a couple of ways. That team has lost its magic mojo, there isn’t a doubt. But I don’t think it’s quite as drastic. You’re also correct that the driver is at the center. But, not necessarily the reasons being presented.
Here’s why.
I don’t think the team lost as much as some believe, the competition just finally caught up. Similar to the likes of how DEI used to dominate when it was time to restrict the carbeurator, and now Hendrick and Gibbs have caught (and it seems) and passed DEI in terms of performance on those tracks. It is true that the magic isn’t quite as special, but the same will be able to be said about Johnson’s team if the others finally catch up to Chad’s magic bag of tricks. Neither driver has forgotten how to drive, the competition is just that much better and getting better every week.
Since Steve took over on top of the pitbox, I’ve had the pleasure of listening to the 24 team (along with about 15 others) communicate at the track on 5 separate occasions. Kansas, Martinsville, and Texas last season, and Texas and Bristol this season. Steve has drastically improved in that time, as a leader of that team. It’s been quite impressive, really. Even the improvement between April and August this season was dramatic. In late 2004, and 2005, the communication between Jeff and Robbie was waning. Both were clearly frustrated, and rightfully so. By this time there was a definate knowledge that the dominance once enjoyed was gone, and all were bewildered. Robbie was, and still is, a great mind in the garage. He was just wasn’t as willing to play in the outer edges of NASCAR’s sandbox as was his counterpart Knaus.
Steve’s getting things back on track, but the days of a driver being so flat-out dominant are long gone. The competition is too close now. I’m surprised that Kahne’s won five, and that Kenseth and Johnson have both won four each. Three isn’t that surprising, but the days of 10 or more wins in a season won’t be seen again.
Jeff is also part of the problem, but I don’t think it’s from attitude in the terms of arrogance. He goes through a hell of a fight with Brooke, and his performance hit the tank as well. Now comes Ingrid, and it picking back up. It seems that if Jeff’s happy off the track, he’s happier on the track as well. I’m also not sure if he’s copletely comfortable at all the tracks with these “new style” set-up’s either. Some places he seems comfortable, and others he seems out of it. Other than Kyle, the Hendrick group as a whole wasn’t very good at Richmond. Jimmie did struggle back though, to at least keep the top 10 in sight.
That brings me to something I’ve noticed all year with the 48 team, when they stink at a track they still seem to come out of nowhere for a top 15. Not every single time, but enough to show that they have “contender” written all over them.
I don’t think they lost momentum at Richmond. Both Knaus and Johnson freely admitted they were playing around with the car to gather information for later use this season. What did he have to lose? Nothing. Harvick couldn’t catch him, and he was already in 2nd. They could have gained 5 points, but the reward of information outweighed the risk of remaining in second.
Over the 10 races leading up to Richmond, nobody outscored Jeff in points earned. Close on his heels was Kyle, behind by 6 points. Other than Texas and Atlanta, Gordon should be good. Talladega is a crapshoot as we all know. Then again, Harvick is peaking at the right time too. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the top 5 within 80 or 100 points of each other when it’s all said and done. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see it end as Harvick, Johnson, Kenseth, Gordon, Busch Hamlin, Burton, Jr, Martin, and Kahne either.
Then again, Hamlin could win it all. Who knows? The level of competition in the top 10 is incredible. You can’t rule anyone out as you could the previous two seasons. A few have slightly better odds, but it’s anyone’s ballgame right now. The odds are that we’ll see a first time champion, but you simply can’t count out the previous one’s either. If I had to rule someone out, it would be Kahne, then Jr. Mainly because when they’re off they are way off, and you just can’t be in this format. Hamlin’s the darkhorse that could stink it all up, and if Burton’s team can keep up with the track past 70% completion, he’s a watcher too. The others? Roll the dice and see which number comes up.
Marc,
Thanks for publishing my story. I very much appreciate it.
I thought about mentioning this in the story, but thought better of it: I’m a huge Jeff Gordon fan. He’s the one driver who got me into following NASCAR. Before Gordon, the sport was, to me, just horse racing at 200mph. He made it exciting, and still does. I’m pulling for him, despite my criticism.
Luke — great points all around. The Brooke breakup must have had an affect, but I’m not sure how much. It’s hard to say for sure.
Kenseth’s team is very good, as usual. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get another championship. For some reason, not anything tangible, I can’t picture Kahne, Harvick, Hamlin, Martin, or Jr. going all the way. I know it’s possible, but I’d be very surprised.
I agree the competition is too close for a single driver/team to completely dominate. But hasn’t Johnson/Knause been doing just that for three years? They’re almost always in first place, and, as you mentioned, their awful performances somehow get them 15th place finishes, or better, any given week.
I’m prepared to eat my hat (figuratively!) if I have it all wrong, but I still believe Johnson will be first, and Gordon 10th.
It will be a fun conclusion to the year whatever happens.
BTW, the Vikings will win the Superbowl this year…
Ah-hah.
nailhead - hammer - direct hit!
When a 1 pound tire pressure adjustment, with little or no other tinkering, can make the difference between spraying the sponsors choice of beverage (What! Where’s the Bud! There’s a choice?) in victory lane and 10th place you know without too much debate competition is close.
Discouting the Morgan Shepards and Mikey’s of the NASCAR world everyone in the top twenty can win each week.
…………………
And while on the subject of “Bud,” let me throw out something I’ve been meaning to wrote about and haven’t. Let me bend the ear of two astute observers of NASCAR.
I’ve been an advocate of Dale Jr. splitting the blankets and leaving DEI for some time. The genesis is based on several things:
1. The team swap fiasco at the end of ‘04.
2. Teresa; She makes the Evernham “absentee owner” charge look like Ray sleeps in the #12 each night, with a #19 pillow.
3. Dale Jr startng his own team in JR Motorsports.
It all came together this week with the announcement of the joint venture by Jr, Kerry, a sister and a noticeably absent Teresa from the new Alabama motorsports park venture. (75,000 seat track! That offers an interesting conundrum for NASCAR doesn’t it? How do they not give that track a date when it’s got the Earnhardt name attached to it?)
Me thinks Jr. won’t be around the DEI compound more than the next 2 years.
To borrow a phrase - What say you?
this is all speculation, but i tend to lean towards lukes ideas. Don, if Ray had so much to do with Jeff’s success, why not pick Kasey to win the title? And I want to add that under the old points system, Jeff would have won the championship in ‘04 with Robbie.
as for this driver or that driver having momentum going into the chase, i dont think it matters unless they can turn it into a sizeable lead in 5 weeks. i think a guy that my not be hot now at all, ut can keep close tabs on the leader and gets hot in the final 3-5 weeks is the one that will win the chase. past couple years, drivers have been very streaky, on team gets hot while the other gets cold. everyone seems to forget how long 10 weeks really is, it seems short but in reality 2, if not 3 and possibly 4 drivers will have mini hot streaks during the chase. it comes down to being in the right place at the right time.
Someone agreed with me? Wow! he he he he he he…
If Jr leaves Marc, which technically could be as soon as the end of 2007 when his contract is up, I’d be willing to bet he takes Richard up on his offer. Them RCR cars have to be looking pretty good from his point of view. He’s done his time building his Dad’s company, now it’s time for him to fulfill his destiny. Then again, he may say screw it and stick with DEI. Although the racer inside him would kick him in the sack for it.
My only question is this:
Why would Ray sleep in Newman’s car? Not to mention they don’t have a backseat. (Did I say that?)
Hope he doesn’t get a real thick 5 o’clock shadow!
Well, that would certainly lead to a sticky situation.
In that case, I bet Ray’s chin wouldn’t be the only place Newman could find to shave his number into.