Full Throttle

History suggests Lewis Hamilton’s path to the world title today is strewn with hazards. In the 57 years years since its inauguration, the Formula One Drivers Championship has gone down to the final race on just 25 occasions.

Only nine drivers have managed to overhaul a deficit going into the final race to become come-from-behind champions. Only one driver has ever overhauled an arrears of seven points, and that was last year when Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen leapfrogged the McLaren duo of Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton by winning at Interlagos to take the title by a single point from the Englishman.

This afternoon, Ferrari driver Felipe Massa also finds himself seven points behind McLaren’s Hamilton. And if the Brazilian is to become the first driver to win the title on his home circuit since Italian Giuseppe “Nino” Farina came from four points behind to beat Juan Manuel Fangio at Monza in 1950, he needs to finish either first or second and hope that Hamilton finishes sixth or worse. Hamilton has finished in the top five in 12 of 17 races this year and out of the points just four times.

Massa knows that Hamilton imploded at Interlagos last year, where he finished seventh, while Massa will be cheered on by 180,000 screaming countrymen and women. Massa also has serious form at Interlagos: he won here in 2006 and finished second last year after slowing down to allow Raikkonen to pass him for the win that gave him the title.

Yet the odds remain stacked against the Ferrari driver becoming the first Brazilian world champion since Ayrton Senna in 1991. Hamilton, who could still become the youngest world champion ever, has undoubtedly learned from last year. Although he wobbled disastrously in Suzuka, he recovered sufficiently to win the last race in Shanghai.

While Massa’s encyclopedic knowledge of every bend and straight at Interlagos give him a huge advantage, there is a 60% chance of rain and Hamilton is the undisputed master in the wet. In theory, the fact that Massa and his highly competitive team-mate Kimi Raikkonen can work as a team while Hamilton can expect no help from his lame duck partner, Heikki Kovalainen, should favour Ferrari, but that fails to factor in Fernando Alonso.

The Renault driver loathes McLaren and Hamilton, and happily admits he will do whatever he can to stop them winning the title. Yet he is also supremely competitive and loves to win above all else, as he has done in two of the last three grands prix despite having a slower car than both Ferrari and McLaren. Alonso will be out to win in Brazil – and, if he does, then Hamilton will have to finish out of the points to miss out on becoming world champion for a second year running.

Although this championship has had its moments – Hamilton went off at the first bend in Japan and also incurred a controversial stop-and-go penalty in Belgium, while Massa exited the pits in Singapore with a fuel hose attached and also saw his engine fail while leading with three laps to go in Hungary – it has lacked the bile, rancour and sheer drama of last year’s three-way fight to the finish. Yet there is still plenty of scope for a dramatic denouement.

Hamilton is overwhelming favorite to lift the title but will be mindful of last year’s sour Brazilian experience. Massa, as well as enjoying home advantage, will look to take inspiration from the following nine come-from-behind wins:

1950: MONZA: FARINA v FANGIO v FAGIOLI (Image Left)

The battle of the generation who had lost their best years to the war reached its climax at Monza when 44-year-old Alfa Romeo racer Dr Giuseppe “Nino” Farina entered the first Formula One championship finale four points behind his 38-year-old Argentine team-mate Juan Manuel Fangio and two points behind Alfa’s other Italian driver, 53-year-old Luigi Fagioli. It was Farina who triumphed on home soil, however, when Fangio, who was to go on and win in five world titles, retired with a seized gearbox and Farina took the chequered flag.

1976: FUJI, JAPAN: HUNT v LAUDA (Image Above)

One of the most remarkable and iconic tussles of F1 history. Ferrari’s Nikki Lauda had dominated the first half of the season until he crashed at the Nurburgring and sustained terrible burns, almost losing his life. New McLaren driver James Hunt picked up so many points in Lauda’s absence that he was just three behind by the final race in Fuji. The conditions that day were terrible, with rain so hard that the start was held up by an hour. When it eventually started, against the wishes of most drivers, Lauda’s nerve broke and he withdrew. Hunt put in a remarkable drive in torrential rain on ragged tyres to finish third and win the title by a point.

1981: LAS VEGAS: PIQUET v REUTEMANN v LAFITTE

Nelson Piquet arrived at the road circuit in the Nevada desert a point behind Williams’ Carlos Reutemann, who promptly took pole. Yet a dire start in which the Argentine lost four positions saw Piquet take advantage and despite savage heat exhaustion which saw him almost fail to finish, the Brazilian took the fifth place he needed to win the title by a point.

1983: SOUTH AFRICA: PIQUET v PROST (See Video below or to the right - ed)

Renault’s Alain Prost was the class act in 1983, but mechanical malfunctions and lapses in concentration did for him as Nelson Piquet came through on the last day of the season to take the title by two points. The Brazilian arrived in South Africa behind Prost, but when the Frenchman’s turbo failed and he had to withdraw, a third-place finish behind Ricardo Patrese and Andrea de Cesaris was enough to give him the title.

1986: ADELAIDE: PROST v MANSELL v PIQUET

Nigel Mansell arrived in Adelaide six points clear of McLaren’s Alain Prost and knowing that all he had to do was finish sixth or better to become the first Brit since James Hunt in 1976 to be world champion. The Williams driver’s hopes went up in a shower of sparks when a rear tyre blew at 190mph, putting him out of the race. Spooked, Williams insisted that Nelson Piquet pit to change tires, allowing Prost to take first place and the title.

1997: JEREZ, SPAIN: VILLENEUVE v SCHUMACHER

Jacques Villeneuve was the star racer of 1997 but went to Spain trailing Michael Schumacher. What followed was one of the most remarkable duels of F1 history, but one which ended when the German tried to ram Villeneuve as the Canadian overtook him, only to get it wrong and end up in the gravel trap.

Villeneuve limped on to finish third; Schumacher was stripped of all his championship points and his reputation never recovered.

1998: SUZUKA, JAPAN: HAKKINEN v SCHUMACHER

Mika Hakkinen utterly dominated the early season, but Schumacher began to reel in the McLaren driver and by the last race of the season the momentum was with the German, who ramped up the pressure by claiming pole in Japan. However, the pressure got to him once again and he stalled on the grid and then sustained a puncture on lap 31, leaving the Finn to coast to his first world championship.

1999: SUZUKA: HAKKINEN v IRVINE

When Michael Schumacher broke a leg at Silverstone, it was Ulsterman Eddie Irvine who took up the cudgels for Ferrari. Schumacher even helped him, holding back Hakkinen expertly at Malaysia on his return so that Irvine arrived in Suzuka four points clear of the Finn. He responded in typical fashion, leading from pole with Irvine finishing third, to see the world champion retain his title.

2007: INTERLAGOS, BRAZIL: RAIKKONEN v HAMILTON v ALONSO

Possibly the most remarkable climax in the history of Formula One, with the two warring McLaren drivers pipped by Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen in the most unlikely comeback of all time. Hamilton had dominated the championship but began to falter and at Interlagos he tussled with Alonso before a temporary gearbox failure saw him fall to the back of the field. Raikkonen, who had started the day seven points behind Hamilton, was in second place before team-mate Felipe Massa moved aside to give the Finn the win and deny Hamilton the world title in his rookie year.